Comprehensive Earthquake Prediction Based on Earthquake Sounds, Abnormal Animal Behaviors and Pre-shock Ground Heat Effect
By YU Yuntao, Shijiazhuang University of Economics

The Wenchuan Earthquake in Sichuan had led to great loss of life and properties in the stricken areas. Earthquake prediction has once again roused great attention since the Tangshan earthquake. To do a good job in the forecasting surely becomes the wish out of all of us. This paper expresses my own thoughts of prediction based on earthquake sounds, abnormal animal behaviors as well as the combination of both, and I will be thrilled should it be some help with the actual prediction work.

I. A Dynamic Experiment
Many years ago, there was this dynamic experiment shown on TV: a cubic stone with gradually added pressures from up and down by the press. In the beginning, there is no deformation or sound. Yet when the pressure reaches a certain point, the stone suddenly cracks with a large sound and small pieces bursting to everywhere. The ultrasound during this period was not recorded as this was not the purpose for the experiment.
Now related information on the internet has shown that in the above experiment, the basic transformation course of the stone is:

A whole integration with mechanical intension not influenced by anything

Certain small crannies with inaudible ultrasound

With the accumulation of pressure, the small crannies become larger and larger, while the ultrasound weaker and weaker 

At the point that the stone splits and cracks, there are the audible sound waves.
The micro crannies in the stone are called micro-fracture. The time from the appearance of micro-fractures to the cracking point of stone is called micro-fracture period.
If possible, there should be further trials and experiments concerning stone with different types and volumes, testing their ultrasonic frequency and intensity in the micro-fracture period, for the use of earthquake prediction research. Surely, recording work is important so as to note the changing frequency and intensity of the ultrasound.
II. Earthquake Sound
1. Earthquake sound is a seismic precursor
With the approaching of an earthquake, the pressure on the underground rocks is accumulating. We’ve known from the above that in the micro-fracture period, there is ultrasound, or namely high-frequency earthquake sound. At the arrival of earthquake, there would be rocks cracking, producing audible sound waves, or audible earthquake sound. Both high-frequency and audible earthquake sound falls into the domain of earthquake sound, which apparently is a seismic precursor.
Before earthquake takes place, underground rocks are entering the micro-fracture period with large pressures from around. The detailed characteristics of the high-frequency sound can be concluded from researches over the sound records of the previous earthquakes in related places.
2. Characteristics of high-frequency earthquake sound
According to their conditions and spreading channels, known high-frequency earthquake sounds boast the following characteristics:
(1) High-frequency earthquake sounds are ultrasounds in the micro-fracture period while underground rocks are enduring large pressures. As the underground rocks are mostly huge, the intensity of the ultrasounds produced should be, in my opinion, quite strong and its transmitting distance quite long.
(2) The frequency, tone and timber of the high-frequency earthquake sounds depend on the size and components of the rock. Its transmission, however, is seldom interfered.
(3) From the above dynamic experiment, when the frequency of high-frequency sound drops to that of the audible sound, earthquakes would be arriving in a minute or immediately. This is the characteristic possessed by brittle material, which is critical to determine the time of the earthquake.   
(4) As high-frequency earthquakes sounds are produced by the micro-cracking of rocks, many animals would be upset and scared at hearing and thus behaving abnormally.
To sum up, high-frequency earthquake sounds are probably the most direct and essential earthquake precursor, with highest intensity, most extensive transmission and largest influence. Due to its relatively small disperse of frequency change, the prediction of earthquake occurrence and time is comparatively reliable.

Predictions can be right or wrong but we must be always prepared for natural disaster and most important is how to behave in such disaster

I have found that running in circles waving one's arms in the air is as good behavior as any during an earthquake.

Or.......................get out the lawn chairs, mix a sasparilla or two and enjoy. That's what us Okies do when the tornado sirens go off anyway..

Happy Trails

Larry,

I agree with you all the way ! New sentence strike that

Regardless of warnings to stay calm and orderly and to stay where you are and seek cover in a door, bathtub, or under a table during an earthquake, those same words were booming from the PA system within the WTC Towers.....right up to the point that....well we all know what happened! New sentence. I think my thought process would have been then and in the future should I be involved in an earthquake is exfill the area immediately.

Honestly my biggest concern is NOT the temblor itself but if large enough, my worry is the immediate aftermath(168 hours) although the government says we should be prepared to be on our own for "UP TO" 72 hours (3 days), I expect and am prepared for approx. 30 days. My issue lies NOT with not ME being prepared to take care of me and mine but for the vast majority of "citizens," these "warnings" will go unheaded.

With that being said, if civil authority is unable to reach affected areas for much longer than 72 hours, those unprepared will prey on those of us who ARE prepared. Whilst not all states will go through lawlessness ( ala' Katrina(2005),Louisiana albeit a small but effective group of criminals decided to take advantage of whatever they could)  we could ALL learn a thing or two on how to maintain civility from the citizens of Japan and how they came together in a time of immense peril and uncertainty.(It should be noted that there were two reported cases of looting during that horrific time(Earthquake/Tsunami/Nuclear meltdown. circa Newsweek 2010)

 

Robby Robinson

(With a bit of help from Dragon*)